Publications

Books (in Norwegian)

Paper in review

Kolstad, E. W.: Deficient ocean–atmosphere feedbacks constrain seasonal NAO prediction. Revised version under review in Weather and Climate Dynamics:

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Published/accepted papers

# of papers: 48 (as first author: 26). See also my list of publications on Google Scholar, ResearchGate, Scopus, or Web of Science

  1. Hempel, M., and E. W. Kolstad (2026): What If Farmers Had Seen It Coming? The Retrospective Potential of Extended-Range Forecasts in Managing the 2018 Drought in Norwegian Agriculture. Climate Risk Management. DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100792
  2. van Bijsterveldt, L. Q., et al. (2026): Lessons learned from co-developing the new operational subseasonal forecast for laypeople on Yr. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0141.1
  3. Kolstad, E. W., R. Barimalala, and D. J. Parker (2025): Skilful Subseasonal Forecasts of Dry Spells: a case study for Malawi. Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-025-07920-4
  4. Dunn-Sigouin, E., E. W. Kolstad, C. O. Wulff, D. J. Parker, and R. J. Keane (2025): Balancing accuracy versus precision: Enhancing the usability of sub-seasonal forecasts. Climate Services. DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100594
  5. Keane, R. J., D. J. Parker, E. Dunn-Sigouin, E. W. Kolstad, and J. H. Marsham (2025): Mid-Latitude Versus Tropical Scales of Predictability and Their Implications for Forecasting. Meteorological Applications. DOI: 10.1002/met.70055
  6. Barimalala, R., C. Wainwright, E. W. Kolstad, and T. D. Demissie (2024): The 2019–21 drought in southern Madagascar. Weather and Climate Extremes. DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100723
  7. Kolstad, E. W., D. J. Parker, D. A. MacLeod, C. M. Wainwright, and L. C. Hirons (2024): Beyond the Regional Average: Drivers of Geographical Rainfall Variability during East Africa’s Short Rains. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.4829
  8. Matte, D. et al. (2024): How to engage and adapt to unprecedented extremes. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0138.1
  9. Lamptey, B. et al. (2024): Challenges and ways forward for sustainable weather and climate services in Africa. Nature Communications. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46742-6
  10. Kolstad, E. W., and C. H. O’Reilly (2024): Causal Oceanic Feedbacks onto the NAO. Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-024-07128-y
  11. MacLeod, D., E. W. Kolstad, K. Michaelides, and M. B. Singer (2024): Sensitivity of rainfall extremes to unprecedented Indian Ocean Dipole events. Geophysical Research Letters (GRL). DOI: 10.1029/2023GL105258
  12. Kolstad, E. W., S. H. Lee, A. H. Butler, D. I. V. Domeisen, and C. O. Wulff (2022): Diverse surface signatures of stratospheric polar vortex anomalies. Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres. DOI: 10.1029/2022JD037422
  13. Kolstad, E. W., and D. MacLeod (2022): Lagged oceanic effects on the East African short rains. Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06176-6
  14. Domeisen, D. I. V., et al. (2022): Advances in the subseasonal prediction of extreme events: Relevant case studies across the globe. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0221.1
  15. Kolstad, E. W., D. MacLeod, and T. D. Demissie (2021): Drivers of subseasonal forecast errors of the East African short rains. Geophysical Research Letters (GRL). DOI: 10.1029/2021GL093292
  16. Kolstad, E. W., C. O. Wulff, D. I. V. Domeisen, and T. Woollings (2020): Tracing North Atlantic Oscillation forecast errors to stratospheric origins. Journal of Climate. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0270.1
  17. Kolstad, E. W. (2020): Prediction and precursors of Idai and 38 Other Tropical Cyclones and Storms in the Mozambique Channel. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3903
  18. Hallerstig, M., L. Magnusson, E. W. Kolstad, and S. Mayer (2020): How grid‐spacing and convection representation affected the wind speed forecasts of four polar lows. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3911
  19. Kolstad, E. W. and J. A. Screen (2019): Nonstationary Relationship between Autumn Arctic Sea Ice and the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters (GRL). DOI: 10.1029/2019GL083059
  20. Kolstad, E. W., O. N. Sofienlund, H. Kvamsås, M. A. Stiller-Reeve, S. Neby, Ø. Paasche, M. Pontoppidan, S. P. Sobolowski, H. Haarstad, S. E. Oseland, L. Omdahl, and S. Waage (2019): Trials, errors and improvements in co-production of climate services. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0201.1
  21. Pontoppidan, M., E. W. Kolstad, S. P. Sobolowski, A. Sorteberg, C. Liu and R. Rasmussen (2019): Large-scale model biases in the extratropical North Atlantic storm track and impacts on downstream precipitation. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3588
  22. Renfrew, I. et al. (2019): The Iceland Greenland Seas Project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0217.1
  23. Pontoppidan, M. L. N., E. W. Kolstad, S. P. Sobolowski, and M. P. King (2018): Improving the reliability and added value of dynamical downscaling via correction of large-scale errors: A Norwegian perspective. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. DOI: 10.1029/2018JD028372
  24. Kolstad, E. W., and M. Årthun (2018): Seasonal Prediction from Arctic Sea Surface Temperatures: Opportunities and Pitfalls. Journal of Climate. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0016.1
  25. Årthun, M., E. W. Kolstad, T. Eldevik, and N. S. Keenlyside (2018): Time scales and sources of European temperature variability. Geophysical Research Letters. DOI: 10.1002/2018GL077401
  26. Kolstad, E. W. (2017): Causal Pathways for Temperature Predictability from Snow Depth. Journal of Climate. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0280.1
  27. Kolstad, E. W. (2017): Higher ocean surface wind speeds during marine cold air outbreaks. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3068
  28. Kolstad, E. W., E. A. Barnes and S. P. Sobolowski (2017): Quantifying the Role of Land–Atmosphere Feedbacks in Mediating Near-Surface Temperature Persistence. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3033
  29. Kolstad, E. W. and T. J. Bracegirdle (2017): Sensitivity of an Apparently Hurricane-like Polar Low to Sea Surface Temperature. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2980
  30. Pontoppidan, M., J. Reuder, S. Mayer and E. W. Kolstad (2017): Downscaling an intense precipitation event in complex terrain: The importance of high grid resolution. Tellus A. DOI: 10.1080/16000870.2016.1271561
  31. Day, J. J., G. Svensson, I. M. Brooks, C. Bitz, L. Broman, G. Carver, M. Chevallier, H. Goessling, K. Hartung, T. Jung, J. E. Kay, E. W. Kolstad, D. Perovich, J. Screen, S. Siemen, F. Vána (2016): The Abisko Polar Prediction School. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98, p. 445–447
  32. Kolstad, E. W., T. J. Bracegirdle and M. Zahn (2016): Re-examining the roles of surface heat flux and latent heat release in a ‘hurricane-like’ polar low over the Barents Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121, p. 7853–7867 [full text]
  33. Kolstad, E. W. (2015): Extreme small-scale wind episodes over the Barents Sea — when, where and why? Climate Dynamics, 45, p. 2137–2150 [full text]
  34. Kolstad, E. W., S. P. Sobolowski and A. A. Scaife (2015): Intraseasonal persistence of European Surface Temperatures. Journal of Climate, 28, p. 5365–5374 [full text]
  35. Støren, E. W. N., E. W. Kolstad and Ø. Paasche (2012): Linking past flood frequencies in Norway to regional atmospheric circulation anomalies. J. Quaternary Sci., 27, 71–80 [full text]
  36. Kolstad, E. W. and A. J. Charlton-Perez (2011): Observed and simulated precursors of stratospheric polar vortex anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Clim. Dynam., 37 (7–8), 1443–1456
  37. Reeve, M. A. and E. W. Kolstad (2011): The Spitsbergen South Cape tip jet. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1739–1748
  38. Kolstad, E. W. (2011): A global climatology of favourable conditions for polar lows. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1749–1761
  39. Kristjánsson, J. E., S. Thorsteinsson, E. W. Kolstad and A. M. Blechschmidt (2011): Orographic influence of East Greenland on a Polar Low over the Denmark Strait. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1773–1789
  40. Kristjánsson, J. E., I. Barstad, T. Aspelien, I. Føre, Ø. Godøy, Ø. Hov, E. Irvine, T. Iversen, E. W. Kolstad, T.E. Nordeng, H. McInnes, R. Randriamampianina, J. Reuder, Ø. Sætra, M. Shapiro, T. Spengler and H. Olafsson (2011): The Norwegian IPY-THORPEX: Polar Lows and Arctic Fronts during the 2008 Andøya campaign. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 1443–1466
  41. Føre, I., J. E. Kristjánsson, E. W. Kolstad, T. J. Bracegirdle, Ø. Sætra and B. Røsting (2011): A “hurricane-like” polar low fueled by sensible heat flux: high-resolution numerical simulations. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 138, 1308–1324 [full text]
  42. Bracegirdle, T. J. and E. W. Kolstad (2010): Climatology and variability of Southern Hemisphere marine cold-air outbreaks. Tellus A, 62: 202–208 [pdf]
  43. Kolstad, E. W., T. Breiteig and A. A. Scaife (2010): The association between stratospheric weak polar vortex events and cold air outbreaks in the Northern hemisphere. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 136, 886–893. DOI: 10.1002/qj.620 [pdf]
  44. Kolstad, E. W. and K. A. Johansson (2010): Uncertainties associated with quantifying climate change impacts on human health: a case study for diarrhea. Environ. Health Perspect., 119, 299–305
  45. Kolstad, E. W., T. J. Bracegirdle and I. A. Seierstad (2009): Marine cold-air outbreaks in the North Atlantic: temporal distribution and associations with large-scale atmospheric circulation. Climate Dynamics, 33 (2): 187–197 [pdf]
  46. Kolstad, E. W. (2008): A QuikSCAT climatology of ocean surface winds in the Nordic Seas: identification of features and comparison with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 113, D11106 [pdf]
  47. Kolstad, E. W. and T. J. Bracegirdle (2008): Marine cold-air outbreaks in the future: an assessment of IPCC AR4 model results for the Northern Hemisphere. Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-007-0331-0
  48. Kolstad, E. W. (2006): A new climatology of favourable conditions for reverse-shear polar lows. Tellus A, 58, 344–354 [pdf]

Other publications

  • Kristjánsson, J. E. and E. W. Kolstad (2011): IPY-THORPEX (editorial). Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1657–1658
  • Mauritzen, C. and E. W. Kolstad (2011): The Arctic Ocean – an ocean in transition [pdf]
  • Kolstad, E. W. and J. I. Borgos (2018): De uventa stormene [The unexpected storms]. Naturen, 142.